A radical rethink for global property – and where we live, work and play As the real estate world emerges from the pandemic it is clear that all around us the urban landscape is changing. Many properties are obsolete but also have exciting futures with new uses. Our town centres and cities are undergoing fundamental change – which all adds up to a world focused on Repurposing Real Estate. Now in its tenth year, our Real Estate Thought Leadership series has covered topics such as the rise of international investment in the UK, the growth of tech, the future of the office, the rapid rise of industrial & logistics and the arrival of build-to-rent as a major asset class. This year, with the Government having published its Levelling Up & Regeneration Bill, we focus on the future of towns and cities not only in the UK but in a series of key global investment hubs: Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. After two years of lockdowns, working, shopping and socialising at home, a debate is raging about the future of town and city centres. Will they recover? How will they look in ten years? Will urbanisation go into reverse? And what does this mean for the real estate world?In `Repurposing Real Estate’ we provide the first answers having polled more than 300 leading industry professionals and almost 15,000 global consumers. The results are fascinating: almost a third of real estate is earmarked for conversion – with retail and offices to housing the most popular choices. Consumers want more green and open space, having spent too long confined to their own homes. But the good news is that investors, having come through the pandemic, are still confident in real estate as an asset class. The big changes will be in what property they invest in, meaning the places we live, work and play in may be very different in the years to come.

There is a growing consensus that the next generation of real estate technology will bring unprecedented change to the industry, with the key trends predicted by industry commentators as follows:As the new hybrid world dawns it is seen as increasingly important that access to the office (in particular) be as convenient and stress-free as possible. Living and lifestyle are also now considered a fertile world for technology – but only in new developments. COVID-19 has accelerated e-commerce across Europe, with e-commerce in the United Kingdom rocketing. Big data is set to underpin the whole revolution. Technology is also seen as key to facilitating greater sustainability, with sensors, data and the best measurement crucial to enhancing ESG credentials, particularly in the challenging arena of retrofitting. However, it is also recognised that barriers remain to the widespread adoption of technology, with big data in particular eyed with suspicion by tenants and customers. Three in four of those we polled said they were wary of the Return on Investment on smart tech­no­logy. Com­pan­ies harvesting this data are viewed with distrust – with the Daily Telegraph among the first organisations to reconsider and then withdraw devices to monitor whether people are at their desk. Our research across a range of fields, from the real estate industry, among office occupiers, renters and potential renters, retail experts and life sciences professionals, drew a striking response.

Recovery of the real estate market is well under way, with optimism rising and a vaccine-prompted bounce propelled further by two powerful forces driving the sector’s future: technology and ESG.

We asked the real estate sector office occupiers, renters, retailers and life sciences businesses what impact COVID-19 is having on demand for real estate in their area, and also on adoption of innovative technology. The sweet spot for innovation and demand driven by COVID-19 is life sciences, where both the occupiers and the real estate professionals see equally positive op­por­tun­it­ies. Driv­en by spectacular technological breakthroughs like COVID vaccine development, and with public and private sector funding pouring into the sector, life sciences is an asset class in the upper right quadrant, very much embracing the opportunity. By contrast, in-store retail is `stuck in the headlights’ according to our polling – beset by falling demand caused by lockdowns and less likely to have ad­op­ted in­nov­at­ive technology as a result of COVID. Interestingly, real estate professionals are significantly more pessimistic about real estate demand from the sector, than retailers themselves. This may be a reflection of increased demand for logistics space as a result of the accelerated shift to online shopping. While real estate professionals see offices as the most actively innovating in response to the pandemic, occupiers are less convinced, although they also seem less pessimistic about demand for office space. This perhaps reflects the reality of a blended working approach which looks here to stay in the immediate future. The build to rent sector, by contrast, is seen as `lucky’ by renters who see that demand is strong but do not believe they are seeing enough innovation in the light of COVID-19 rather than redeveloping tired properties.

Many people have speculated over how quickly COVID-19 has accelerated technological adoption within real estate – but now we have a view from more than 4,000 industry professionals, office occupiers, renters, retail experts and life sciences professionals: five years. Across all groups this is the most common prediction although the mean response is four years. The impact of lockdowns and the need to rapidly embrace technology is extraordinary: how many people used Teams or Zoom for business 18 months ago?

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, 5G IoT, vir­tu­al/aug­men­ted reality and robotics are considered the coming forces among real estate customers, which begins to explain how technology is expected to accelerate change in the sector during the 2020s. These are profound changes which will not only impact how key industries are managed but also how they occupy real estate – and who occupies real estate on their behalf. Interestingly no one technology scores over 50%, suggesting views are divided on which innovations will have the most impact on the real estate overall. Tools such as Amazon’s Alexa have removed the mystique from AI as people have realised that it can make their lives easier, and it is perhaps not surprising to note that the highest acceptance of this technology is in arguably the most tech-advanced sector – life sciences.

Real estate asset management is now data-rich, having for many years relied on a disparate set of metrics and a haphazard approach to measurement. Given the value of most properties, this is surprising, because marginal gains can make a huge difference, particularly across a large portfolio if this level of discipline is repeated. It is no surprise, therefore, that data collection is seen as a key tool as owners battle to meet tough sustainability targets. At the same time, occupiers are also seeing the benefits of data collection, particularly around the optimal use of space. Yet again, the life sciences world is at the cutting edge of this thinking.

The increasing importance of technology and digitalisation has come to the fore throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the office market but also in life sciences, build to rent and logistics.

People miss the office, the human interaction it promotes and the clear boundaries that office life creates between personal and professional life. In many organisations, it has been younger people who have lobbied hardest for a return to the office, unable to work satisfactorily at home and missing the opportunities and social interaction that office life presents. As city centres begin to work out a new future, technology will be at the heart of the debate, with the more favourable buildings allowing people to work seamlessly and connect with colleagues around the world at the same time as giving a feeling of safety and security. With ‘the digital workplace’ now considered the new working environment, employers need to both embed the physical implementation of smart technology in their buildings and to ensure the virtual working experience transforms the employee experience by fostering efficiency, innovation and the social elements that many people crave in their workplace.

Real estate professionals have had a dramatic conversion in the last 12 months towards the principle of achieving net zero, according to our polling. While the concept was barely understood two years ago – and industry experts were taken aback by initial glob­al am­bi­tions to achieve net zero by 2040 or 2050, the real estate sector has been galvanised into action by its investors and occupiers and is now looking to hit its targets by 2030-2035. Technology has to be at the heart of this: stakeholders from across the real estate world now have the motivation, financially and ethically, to create and utilise technology that can help create greener buildings. In the last year the biggest players in UK real estate, including Aviva Investors, British Land, Landsec and SEGRO, have set bold targets to reach net zero, with most respondents expecting the real estate world to beat government targets by achieving net zero emissions by 2035 at the latest.