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CMS publiceert resultaten onderzoek “Deal Drivers Russia”

13/03/2009

De Russische M&A-markt gaat groeien, financiële markten winnen aan dynamiek in 2009

Volgens de meerderheid van de respondenten zijn de vooruitzichten voor 2009 positiever dan men zou verwachten.

De resultaten van het 'Deal Drivers Russia' onderzoek - dat CMS vandaag in samenwerking met 'merger market' publiceerde - laten zien dat er ondanks de sombere krantenkoppen nog veel optimisme is onder de besluitvormers in Russische ondernemingen en dat de algehele marktvooruitzichten positiever zijn dan men mogelijk zou hebben verwacht.

Eind 2008 werd een honderdtal Russische besluitvormers op het gebied van M&A en ondernemingsfinanciering uit alle sectoren geïnterviewd over diverse aspecten van de Russische M&A-omgeving en de transactievooruitzichten voor de komende 12 maanden.

Een meerderheid van de ondervraagden verwacht dat het niveau van de economische groei in de komende 12 maanden zal blijven dalen, maar meer dan de helft denkt dat de Russische M&A-activiteit, inclusief private equity buy outs, in de komende 12 maanden zal toenemen en dat de financieringsmogelijkheden eind 2009, begin 2010 zullen beginnen te verbeteren.

Irene Engel, hoofd van CMS' corporate praktijk in Rusland, zegt in reactie op de onderzoeksuitkomsten: 'Rusland blijft het land van de grote kansen en de komende paar jaar zullen we een terugkeer zien naar realistischer prijzen en een verschuiving van een verkopersmarkt naar een kopersmarkt, wat een gezondere omgeving biedt voor het bedrijfsleven.'

'Aangezien de meerderheid van de besluitvormers verwacht dat de financieringsmogelijkheden aan het einde van 2009 of in het begin van 2010 zullen verbeteren, verwachten we een sterke opleving in de debt financing van M&A', zegt Grant Williams, hoofd van CMS' praktijkgroep Banking & Finance in Rusland.

Het onderzoeksrapport is uitgebracht in het Engels en kunt u hier downloaden.

Voor meer informatie over Rusland en het rapport, kunt u contact opnemen met Roman Tarlavski, partner corporate finance en hoofd van de Russian Desk van CMS Derks Star Busmann, T (+31) 20 3016 312 of E [email protected].

I. Belangrijkste resultaten uit het onderzoek: 2009 Outlook - Key findings

  • A combined 78% of respondents expect the level of economic growth in Russia to decrease (52%) or to decrease significantly (26%) over the next 12 months. Of the remaining, 8% expect growth will remain the same, while others expect it will increase (12%) or increase dramatically (2%).

  • A combined 51% of respondents expect Russian M&A activity to increase (46%) or increase significantly (6%) over the next 12 months, with 30% expecting a decrease and 3%, a significant decrease.

  • A combined 52% or respondents believe the level of private equity buy outs will either increase (40%) or increase significantly (12%) over 2009. Local private equity firms are expected to conduct the majority of Russian private equity activity 2009.

  • The Financial Services sector was cited by 80% of respondents as likely to be among the top three most active sectors in Russia over the course of 2009. Elsewhere, 51% of respondents name the Consumer sector while 42% believe that the Energy, Mining & Utilities sector will feature in the top three most active niches in terms of deal flow in 2009.

  • Over 80% of respondents assess that domestic bidders will be the primary acquirers of Russian assets over 2009.

  • Over half of respondents (52%) believe the majority of cross-border bidders will originate from Asia over the next 12 months. China, Japan and India are indicated as Asian countries where cross-border bidders will predominantly originate.

  • Over three quarters (79%) of respondents identify financing difficulties as the greatest constraint to M&A activity over the next 12 months. 23% of respondents point to risk aversion and uncertainty due to poor market conditions as another one of the greatest constraints.

  • Under half of respondents (44%) expect the number of Russian companies listing to at least decrease over the next 12 months, 22 % expect the number of listings to remain the same, while a combined 34% take a more positive view and predict listings will increase.

  • Over half of respondents believe the funding environment will begin to improve at the end of 2009. Another 39% expect that the recovery will not occur until 2010 and a small share (4%) foresee it occurring in 2011.

  • Alternative investments in Russia could witness a lucrative 2009, with infrastructure investments looking particularly strong. Real estate funds could suffer over the course of the year with the wider sector beginning to show some significant weakness.


II. Deal trends 2005 - 2008

  • Over 2005-2008, the total number of domestic and inbound M&A deals in Russia amounted to 1,100 valued at €183.7bn. In 2008, M&A activity experienced a sharp deceleration: the volume of M&A transactions fell by over 25% and deal values by over 50% compared to 2007 figures (317 deals worth €75.6bn). The M&A slowdown became more acute as the global financial crisis, precipitated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, worsened over the course of the second half of 2008.

  • In 2008, domestic deals accounted for around two thirds of overall deal flow, both in terms of volume (67%) and value (64%). The corresponding average figures for the past four years amounted to 70%. Domestic Energy, Mining & Utilities deals continued to lead the way, accounting for 28% of deal volume and 42% of deal value, followed by Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) and Consumer Goods (17% and 14% of deal volume respectively).

  • For the inbound deals, companies from the UK comprised the largest group of investors making acquisitions in Russia in 2008, accounting for 17% of total inbound investments by volume, followed closely by firms from the US at 16%. Proportions of UK and US investments made in 2008 to total acquisitions that year are slightly above trend levels for the 2005-2008. However, this is also the case with Cyprus and Finland, the third and fourth most active investors in Russia, under-scoring the tendency for increasing concentration of inbound investment by country. By deal value, Finland and the US led the way, each contributing around one fifth of total deal valuations in 2008.

  • Energy, Mining & Utilities remained the leading sector by M&A activity in 2008, with deal flow comprising slightly more than 25% of the total number of transactions and just over 40% of total deal values over the year. Seven of the top 10 Russian M&A deals announced in 2008 took place in this sector. The Consumer sector was the next most active with just under 20% of total deals and about 15% of total deal valuations. The TMT sector accounted for about 15% of deal flow, but only an approximate 4% of total value. The Financial Services sector (12.5% of total deal volumes), was the second largest sector by deal value after Energy, Mining and Utilities in 2008, accounting for just under one quarter of total deal valuations over the year.

  • By deal size, small-cap deals (<€100m) accounted for just over 50% of total transaction volume in 2008, but only 11% of total deal value - figures similar to the overall trend for 2005 to 2008 as a whole. Deal volume in the mid-market (€101-€500m) comprised 20% of the overall market in 2008, compared to just 15% over the 2005-2008 period, while the share of such deal values accounted for around 30% of the market (compared with roughly 20% for the 2005-2008 period). Large-cap deals (>€500m) numbered 17 with a value of €21.4bn in 2008, accounting for approximately 7% of deal volume and 60% of deal value in the year, compared with respective proportions of 6% and 70% over 2005-08.
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CMS publishes results of the “Deal Drivers Russia” research
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