Stock & vacancy evolution in Poland
Demand evolution in Poland
Demand by sector in Poland in H1 2020
The I&L market in Poland is divided into 11 main regional markets, where approximately 98% of the modern industrial stock is located. Nine of the main markets consist of the largest Polish cities and the regions surrounding them. There are also Eastern and Western markets, which consist of locations along the eastern and western borders of the country. Outside of the 11 main markets, only ca. 450,000 m2 of space is located (2% of Poland’s stock).
Warsaw is the largest and one of the fastest growing I&L markets in Poland. It is divided into three industrial zones: zone I – the city of Warsaw, zone II – up to 30 km from Warsaw’s city centre, and zone III – up to 60 km from Warsaw’s city centre.
The largest developers operating in Poland include: Panattoni, Segro, Prologis, GLP, Hillwood, MLP Group, P3 Logistic Parks, 7R Logistics and Waimea.
Supply, demand & vacancy
At the end of H1 2020, the total stock of modern industrial space in Poland reached 19.65 million m2 , 24% of which (4.64 million m2 ) was located within the three Warsaw industrial zones.
During H1 2020, developers in Poland completed approximately 1.06 million m2 of new warehouse space, which was close to the figure for the same period of 2019 (1.09 million m2 ). At the end of June 2020, there were a further 1.9 million m² of warehouse space under construction.
Tenants’ activity observed in Poland in the first half of the year experienced an upward trend compared to the corresponding period of last year. The total transaction volume reached 2.48 million m2 , which was a 28.6% increase compared to the figure from the end of June 2019. This result was largely influenced by two leasing agreements signed in Q2 this year by Amazon (ca. 273,300 m2 in total).
In the leasing structure, new agreements dominated and constituted 54%. Renegotiations and BTS agreements also had a significant share, constituting 23% and 17% of demand respectively. Tenant sectors in terms of operation were led by 3PL (22%), e-commerce (21%) and retail (19%).
Rental rates & lease conditions
Lease agreements by type in Poland in H1 2020
In H1 2020, headline rental rates remained stable in all major industrial markets and ranged between EUR 3.1-4.9/m2 /month, with the highest being noted in Warsaw, particularly in industrial zone I.
The average lease lengths in Poland are 3-5 years, 5 years or more if the warehouse requires special adaptations and 10-15 years in case of BTS agreements. Developer’s offer some incentives to tenants, which are up to 20-30% of the contract value, and include rent free periods, cash incentives or budget for improvements.
The market of modern industrial&logistics space in Poland remains attractive for investors and developers, and thus it is developing very dynamically. Rental rates remain stable. Also the levels of new supply and demand are expected to be similar in H2 2020 as during the first six months of the year.
The completion of half (50%) the space that was under construction at the end of H1 is expected by the end of 2020. It is thus highly probable that by the end of this year, the total stock of modern I&L space in Poland will exceed 20 million m2 .
Top 5 lease agreements
|Company name||Region||Park Name||Size (m2)||Sector||Lease Type|
|Euro Net||Warsaw II||Prologis Park Janki||73,410||Retail||New lease|
|Amazon||Central Poland||Hillwood Łódź Górna||72,960||E-commerce||New lease|
|Confidential Client||Silesia||BTS Czeladź||67,010||Retail||BTS|
|Confidential Client||Tricity||Panattoni Park Tricity East IV||52,000||n/a||New lease|