The odds behind the World Cup: sports betting and Mexico's regulatory challenge
According to projections from H2 Gambling Capital, the tournament will generate a total handle of approximately 60 billion dollars globally, 71% more than the previous World Cup. Of that figure, the three host countries will account for close to 5.7 billion dollars, with Mexico expected to lead that share.
Of course, this growth isn't solely a product of the World Cup. The global sports betting market was already valued at around 113.8 billion dollars in 2025, with projections to surpass 295 billion by 2034, driven by expanding regulation across different countries and the emergence of new formats and platforms. Still, it's already a reality that the World Cup ranks among the top sporting events in betting-related revenue, alongside events like the Super Bowl. Consider that, in the United States alone, the number of states with legal sports betting nearly doubled between the Qatar 2022 World Cup and this one.
Legal perspective
This volume of business raises many questions for Mexico's regulatory framework, which is built on the Federal Gaming and Lotteries Law (Ley Federal de Juegos y Sorteos), legislation that predates by decades the new betting formats and digital platforms that today account for most of this business.
How prepared is that framework to distinguish between licensed operators and the growing number of unlicensed foreign platforms operating through digital channels? The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has already put a spotlight on this question. In August 2025, together with the International Olympic Committee and with FIFA's support, it organized the workshop "Protecting Sport in Mexico: A Focus on the Fight Against Competition Manipulation", which brought together 65 representatives from public security institutions, sports organizations, and authorities from Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
Regulatory compliance in this space is directly tied to a set of rules and processes that must be met, especially around licensing, consumer protection, age verification, and tax treatment, among others.
For Mexico specifically, the challenge isn't trying to stop a business that's growing globally, the challenge is to reform and update the regulatory frameworks so they can clearly distinguish between operators that compete legally and meet everything required to operate properly, and those that operate outside any oversight.
