- Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents expect European M&A to increase over the next 12 months, either somewhat (45%) or significantly (20%), a major reversal from last year’s study when only 3% forecast a significant increase.
- Deal value in H1 2024 was €439 billion compared to €334 billion in H1 2023, representing a 31% year-on-year increase.
- Deal volume in H1 2024 was 7,868 compared to 8,579 deals in H1 2023, representing an 8% drop.
- Valuation gaps between buyers and sellers (24%) were identified as the single biggest obstacle to European dealmaking in the next 12 months, followed by inflation and interest rates (18%).
- Respondents are split about the UK & Ireland’s M&A prospects for the year ahead, with 32%, the largest share, placing it in the top spot for anticipated M&A growth, but 31% saying it will see lowest growth.
- 55% expect to see increased appetite among Middle Eastern buyers for European assets.
- Nearly all respondents (90%) describe a target company’s diversity factor as an important consideration, including 29% who say it is crucial.
According to global law firm CMS’ 2025 European M&A Outlook, nearly two-thirds of dealmakers expect the level of European M&A activity to increase in the next 12 months, including 20% who say it will rise significantly. Benelux is one of the European regions where the most growth in M&A activity is expected due to the market stability and favourable regulatory regimes. The Outlook was published today in association with financial data firm Mergermarket. This stands in stark contrast to last year’s predictions when only 3% forecast a significant increase.
After a challenging couple of years for European M&A activity, H1 2024 demonstrated signs of recovery. Aggregate M&A deal values in the region totalled EUR 439bn, up 31% compared to the first six months of 2023, according to Mergermarket figures. However, transaction volumes were down over the same period, falling by 8% compared to H1 2023’s 8,579 deal announcements.
"Having announced fewer big-ticket deals in 2023 as they awaited greater certainty around interest rates, dealmakers appear to have reverted in 2024 to more concentrated activity in larger transactions – a sign of confidence returning gradually to the market.”
Louise Wallace, Global Head of the CMS Corporate/M&A Group
“Germany and Benelux are the European regions that our respondents expect to see the most growth in M&A activity over the coming year, each attracting 16% of first rank votes. When asked about investment in these regions, respondents frequently mentioned stability and favourable regulatory regimes.”
Vincent Dirckx, Head of the Corporate/M&A Group in Belgium
DIGITALISATION AND OTHER DRIVERS
Almost a fifth of respondents (17%) expect digitalisation to be the number-one driver of buy-side M&A activity in Europe over the next 12 months, but it is by no means the only major factor propelling dealmaking.
Whereas digitalisation dominated M&A strategies during the pandemic and in the couple of years immediately following the crisis, dealmakers today are quick to identify several additional key drivers of M&A, such as distressed opportunities (14%), mounting interest from overseas acquirers (also 14%). Such a plurality of motivating factors is indicative of an increasingly healthy deal market in Europe.
VALUATION GAPS
Buyer and seller price expectations have emerged more clearly as the single biggest obstacle, with 24% identifying this as the primary hurdle to dealmaking in the next 12 months.
While it is normal for valuation gaps to emerge following market corrections or shocks, this sticking point appears to be taking longer to work through than in the past, as price discovery continues to be far from straightforward. With public market indices up over the past year (MSCI World, for example, was up by more than 20% in the year to the end of June 2024), company valuations have remained high despite higher financing costs in what remains an uncertain economic environment.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
From a foreign direct investment (FDI) perspective, 2023 was a difficult time for Europe. The number of FDI projects announced in the year was down by 4% from 2022, according to EY, and remained 11% below 2019’s pre-pandemic level. Our survey paints a more positive picture of Europe overall, with the vast majority of respondents (98%) saying they plan to invest in Europe in the next three years, notably, in UK and Ireland, Germany and the Benelux.
DIVERSITY MATTERS
Nearly all respondents (90%) describe a target company’s diversity factor as an important consideration. However, there are regional differences. Respondents in the Nordic and DACH regions place a high emphasis on diversity, with 48% saying diversity is a crucially important factor. Meanwhile, only 13% of SEE and 9% of CEE dealmakers surveyed share this view.
OUTLOOK
After a period of reflection in 2023, as European dealmakers absorbed the shocks of rapidly rising inflation and elevated interest rates, the signs for 2024 so far are that M&A activity across the region is shifting back into a higher gear.
MIXED FEELINGS ON UK & IRELAND
Respondents are split about the UK & Ireland’s M&A prospects for the year ahead. In terms of anticipated growth, the region comes out on top by first and second choice votes, at 32% combined; yet it also emerges as the region that many respondents believe will see the lowest M&A growth, with 31% identifying it as their first or second choice in that regard.
Dr Malte Bruhns, Global Head of the CMS Corporate/M&A Group, added: “While interest rates remain high relative to expectations, there is a consensus that inflation is now mostly under control and that systemically important central banks in Europe will opt for at least one or two more rate cuts before 2024 closes. Should this happen, one of the major impediments to M&A that has prevailed longer than many had expected – namely, buyer and seller valuation gaps – may begin to abate. Even absent significant cuts, the sense that interest rates have peaked provides more certainty to dealmakers when underwriting transactions.”
“While interest rates remain high relative to expectations, there is a consensus that inflation is now mostly under control and that systemically important central banks in Europe will opt for at least one or two more rate cuts before 2024 closes. Should this happen, one of the major impediments to M&A that has prevailed longer than many had expected – namely, buyer and seller valuation gaps – may begin to abate. Even absent significant cuts, the sense that interest rates have peaked provides more certainty to dealmakers when underwriting transactions.”
Dr Malte Bruhns, Global Head of the CMS Corporate/M&A Group
Read the full CMS European M&A Outlook 2025 here.
