Climate and cyber threats
The growing effect of climate change on critical infrastructure seems to be demonstrated on a regular basis around the globe, as weather- related disasters cause more damage every year. And while the threat that some extreme weather events can pose to infrastructure is obvious, the world as a whole has not yet adjusted to the idea that all weather extremes present danger. Droughts can force hydropower projects to shut down, but floods can overwhelm their dams. Increasingly, it is clear that much of our current critical infrastructure was designed for a ‘Goldilocks’ world of stable mediums that does not really exist anymore. The investment implications of this are profound.
There has also been a higher frequency of cyberattacks on infrastructure assets and critical systems, which may increase further as smart features and AI are embedded in more infrastructure. Although companies and governments have increased their investments in security measures to fend off these incursions, there is still a notable lack of visible cooperation among governments to prevent them.
Colonial Pipeline and Nord Stream
The 2021 ransomware attack that led to the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline in the US for several days – prompting President Biden to invoke emergency powers to deal with the situation – is perhaps the clearest demonstration to date of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to attack, even before developments such as AI are factored into the equation. Incidents such as the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines have also sent shudders through governments and businesses alike. It is one thing to protect core IT systems or a defensible asset such as a single building or site from attack. It is quite another to safeguard infrastructure assets that may stretch over hundreds of miles or be situated in remote or inaccessible places. Technology offers monitoring solutions, but prevention is more problematic. And, of course, critical infrastructure can fail through accident or error. Undersea cables, for instance, are certainly potential targets for sabotage, but they may also be damaged inadvertently by trawlers or by ships dragging their anchors.
Key calculations
There is an important calculation to be made here. What proportion of infrastructure cost should be spent on ensuring resilience? And beyond that, what – and how – should governments be spending on broader infrastructure protection?
The pandemic was a harsh reminder that many nations with straitened finances have been inclined to cut what they spend on various aspects of disaster prevention and control (or, in other cases, were never able to afford it in the first place). Defence against future threats – ranging from runaway global warming to quantum computers that may one day be able to crack legacy encryption systems – tends to lose out when competing against more immediate demands for funding.
