The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), in conjunction with the Energy Research Office, has developed the “Ten Year Energy Expansion Plan to 2027” (PDE). The PDE forecasts an increase in the share of installed capacity from renewable sources, from around 126GW in 2017 to 164GW in 2027, as part of a medium-to-long-term national strategy. In contrast to earlier projections, a greater share of the increase is projected to come from wind (14.3GW) than hydropower (9.9GW). Increases in biomass (3GW) and solar (8GW) are also projected.
The latest A-4 energy auction was held in June 2019, for generation projects to commence operation on 1 January 2023. A total of 401.6MW of renewable energy generation capacity was contracted, over half of which (211MW) was for solar, which set a new world record low price of R$ 67.48/MWh. The next auction is an A-6 auction to be held in October 2019 for commencement on 1 January 2025. According to the MME, a total of 1,829 projects have been proposed representing more than 100GW, including wind, solar, hydropower and biomass.
The hydropower sector is likely to remain strong, despite the government’s aim of diversifying the supply of energy. The PDE forecasts that, by 2027, hydropower capacity in Brazil will increase to 103.4GW (from the 2017 level of 93.6GW).
Solar power remains an under-developed source of renewable energy in Brazil. This is despite Brazil having an average solar radiation far exceeding that of many of the leading countries that generate solar power. With an installed capacity of 2.9GW in May 2019 (of which 0.8GW comes from distributed generation), the Brazilian Association for Photovoltaic Solar Energy has said that there are projects currently in development which represent a further 1.7GW of capacity and that are due to come online by 2022. The MME forecasts that this will reach 8.6GW by 2027. However, this figure remains very low in the context of an estimated potential generation of up to 28,500GW of solar capacity.