CMS Energy Transition Report 2025

• Despite political shifts, there is a global consensus on the need to achieve net zero and to reduce fossil fuel reliance by 2050.
• But how to do this remains elusive and there is currently less consensus on the role of oil & gas companies in the energy transition.
• Oil & gas majors have delivered significant capex into renewables and energy transition, with the amount of investment having tripled since our first report in 2019. Capital Economics estimates that capex allocated to renewables in 2024 by the 16 companies surveyed for the report was USD19.6 billion, representing roughly 7.7% of the survey companies’ total capex.
• However, future investments may plateau. While there is a clear need for front-loading such investment globally to reach net zero by 2050, the amount of investment from oil & gas companies may be driven less by a desire to simply diversify across the energy spectrum, and more by shifts in demand for their fossil fuels and in seeking greener pathways to market for fossil fuel products (such as through hydrogen or carbon capture).
• This shift is also due to shareholder pressures on the majors to refocus on core and related activities amid profitability concerns from what are still seen by many as ancillary activities.
• Overall, while investments levels have been higher than two years ago, the outlook for oil & gas companies’ investment in the energy transition is more nuanced. At least for now, prospects for growth in this sector are likely to be lower.

The report is the fourth in a series examining how major oil & gas companies are approaching the energy transition. The previous reports were published in 2019, 2021 and 2023.

CMS commissioned Capital Economics to assess the strategies and activities that 16 major oil & gas companies have undertaken in relation to the energy transition. The focus of the report is the companies’ own messaging about these activities, primarily taken from annual reports, sustainability reports, investor presentations and corporate websites. It also provides a forecast for capex on renewables to 2030.

The 16 companies surveyed in 2025 include independent, integrated and national oil & gas companies around the globe: ADNOC, Aramco, bp, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, eni, equinor, ExxonMobil, Harbour Energy, PEMEX, PETROBRAS, PetroChina, PETRONAS, Repsol, Shell and TotalEnergies.

These companies continue to fall into three strategic trajectories, with their focus on how to compete in the net zero future a key differentiator:

1. Diversified portfolio companies have expanded beyond traditional oil & gas activities and are more committed to renewable generation as a future revenue producer.
2. Core focus companies may use renewables in their own operations, but their capex priorities lean towards current operations and lower carbon commercial solutions.
3. National champions are generally state-owned entities mandated to carry out national energy transition commitments.

The report is structured into four chapters:

1. The Global Context for the Energy Transition
2. Key Drivers, Emerging Trends and Challenges
3. Different Company Strategies in the Energy Transition
4. Renewables Investment and the Outlook to 2030

Download the full report to explore the insights.